Home | NSW and Vic Opening Allocation Forecast Update

NSW and Vic Opening Allocation Forecast Update

On Monday 16 May 2022 Industry NSW and the Northern Victorian Resource Manager released their revised forecast for the opening allocations for some of the major river systems. Waterfind has analysed and summarised the announcements below.

New South Wales Murray Allocations

The outlook for 1 July 2022 water availability is conservatively based on assumed dry inflows for the remainder of this water year and extreme dry conditions for 2022-23. To put this into context, the 2021/22 season is deemed to be wet/ extremely wet and the major storages that store water for the Murray are at some of the highest levels seen since the 2011/12 season.

Given these factors, it is expected that the opening allocation for the NSW Murray are:

  • 30% for General Security entitlement holders
  • 97% for High Security entitlement holders

Note that the 30% is the highest allocation that can be granted to General Security entitlement holders and will not be able to be increased until the entire Barmah-Millewa Environmental Water Allowance account is balanced. This balance is approximately 200,000 ML, but due to the wet nature of the current climate, this is expected to be repaid quickly.

The opening allocation for General Security holders in the current 2021/22 season was only 3%, so if the forecast is accurate and 30% allocation is granted, this would make over 500,000ML available to users. This is a full 450,285ML of additional entitlement that will be accessible to market participants on 1 July. To read the full announcement click here.

New South Wales Murrumbidgee Allocations

Much like the NSW Murray the outlook for 1 July 2022 water availability is conservatively based on assumed dry inflows for the remainder of this water year and extreme dry conditions for 2022-23. The Murrumbidgee River system has had a very wet year, with both the Burrinjuck and Blowering Dams remaining above 90% full for quite a few months, despite releases and supplementary events occurring.

It is expected that the opening allocation for the NSW Murrumbidgee are:

  • 35% for General Security entitlement holders
  • 95% for High Security entitlement holders

The opening allocation for General Security holders in the current 2021/22 season was 30%, so if the forecast is accurate and 35% allocation is granted, this would make approximately 661,000ML available to users. This is a difference of 94,400ML additional entitlement that will be accessible to market participants on 1 July. To read the full announcement click here.

Victorian Murray Allocations

The outlook for 1 July 2022 water availability is based on assumed dry inflows for the remainder of this water year and extreme dry conditions for 2022-23. To put this into context, the 2021/22 season is deemed to be wet / very wet and the major storages that store water for the Murray are at some of the highest levels seen since the 2011/12 season.

Given these factors, it is expected that the opening allocation for the Victorian Murray are:

  • 85% for High Reliability entitlement holders
  • 0% for Low Reliability entitlement holders

However, it is noted that if average inflow conditions are experienced it should allow the Murray, River system to reach seasonal determinations of 100% (for High Reliability entitlement owners) by mid-August 2022. The risk of spill in the Murray is forecasted to be extremely high, due to Victoria’s share of Hume and Dartmouth being full.

The opening allocation for High Reliability holders in the current 2021/22 season was only 21%, so if the forecast is accurate and 85% allocation is granted, this would make over 1,000,000ML available to users. This is a full 756,000ML of additional entitlement that will be accessible to market participants on 1 July. To read the full announcement click here.

Victorian Goulburn Allocations

The outlook for 1 July 2022 water availability is based on assumed dry inflows for the remainder of this water year and extreme dry conditions for 2022-23. To put this into context, the 2021/22 season is deemed to be wet / very wet and the major storages that store water for the Goulburn are at some of the highest levels seen since the 2011/12 season.

Given these factors, it is expected that the opening allocation for the Goulburn system are:

  • 50% for High Reliability entitlement holders
  • 0% for Low Reliability entitlement holders

However, it is noted that if average inflow conditions are experienced it should allow the Goulburn River system to reach seasonal determinations of 100% (for High Reliability entitlement owners) by mid-September 2022. The risk of spill in the Goulburn is forecasted to be at 70%, due to the capacity at Lake Eildon.

The opening allocation for High Reliability holders in the current 2021/22 season was 33%, so if the forecast is accurate and 50% allocation is granted, this would make approximately 526,000ML available to users. This is additional 178,000ML of entitlement that will be accessible to market participants on 1 July. To read the full announcement click here.

With the outlooks for the coming season appearing wet to very wet now is the right time to start considering how to maximise the potential of your water entitlement, not only for the remainder of this season, but also looking forward into next season as well.

If you have entitlement and space available, it may be beneficial for you to lease out your carryover space and / or sell your remaining temporary water on the market. To discuss this option, or any other option regarding the water market and the outlook for the new season, please contact your Local Water Account Manager on 1800 890 285. If you would like to view the Live water market click here.

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