On the 15/4/24 Water NSW released their Outlook for the 2024-25 Season, you can catch up on the outlook below.
A water availability outlook for the start of the next water year (1 July 2024) is provided below. The outlook is indicative only, not guaranteed, and should be used with caution, particularly when projecting many months ahead. Nevertheless, it aims to help water users with their end of year water management decisions.
Key information
- This outlook for 1 July 2024 water availability is conservatively based on a recession of current flows to extreme dry (99th percentile) conditions to the end of 2024-25. The resulting indicative forecast general security allocations for September and November 2024 under a range of possible inflow scenarios are provided in the table below to assist planning by water users.
- The forecast information is not guaranteed and should be used at one’s own risk.
Murrumbidgee Regulated River Water Source
Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water | PUB24/381 3 - Based on the full allocations in 2023-24 and usage to date, the maximum permissible carryover volume is expected for the 2024-25 water year. That is, it is assumed General Security and Conveyance carryover will be around 30% of entitlement, some 680,000 ML.
- The undelivered IVT balance at the end of this water year (2023/24) will be carried over unchanged to the next water year (2024/25). The IVT balance is held in Murrumbidgee storages and is a callable resource for the NSW Murray.
- As resources improve for 2024/25, so do the expected storage volumes over winter/spring 2024. This also increases the risk of spill, and therefore, limits the ability to capture new resource and limits resource improvements from high inflows. This phenomenon may affect allocation improvements in 2024/25, particularly for scenarios with wetter than average inflow conditions.
Indicative allocations on 1 July 2024 for the 2024/25 water-year - Full (100%) allocation can be expected for towns, domestic and stock access licences, and sub-category high security entitlements.
- Full allocations for supplementary (including Lowbidgee) access licence holders can be expected however take of water will be subject to announced periods of supplementary access.
- Forecasts show likely 95% allocation for high security entitlements.
- Full carryover (up to 30% of entitlement) is expected to be deliverable, some 680,000 ML.
- Conveyance will be allocated in accordance with water sharing plan rules, commensurate with high security and general security allocations.
- Preliminary forecasts indicate sufficient resource to provide a likely commencing allocation to general security licenses of at least 15% of entitlement. Should resources continue to accrue from higher than minimum inflows, this commencing allocation can be expected to increase.
- Water will be set aside for environmental requirements in accordance with the rules of the Murrumbidgee regulated rivers water sharing plan.
Chances of improvement
The chances of improved Murrumbidgee general security allocations after 1 July 2024, based on a repeat of historical inflows, are provided in the table below under a variety of conditions. The forecast is based on all available historical data, which gives a better outlook than using just the driest years on record (dry tercile).
It is important to note that these estimates are indicative improvements only and are not guaranteed allocations. Estimates are likely to change based on weather conditions, water user behaviour, water management decisions and other events. This means water users should use this information with caution and at their own risk, particularly as it projects many months ahead.
Note 1: Estimated values indicative only, not guaranteed and subject to change based on actual events unfolding.
Note 2: Forecast assumes 30% carryover on average.
* Potential storage spills may limit resource improvements if usage is limited, as spilling storages and low usage means liabilities do not retire from the storages, and therefore resources do not improve.
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